I just looked at my '38 deluxe; The space between the grill and the headlight looks like the black fender. My fender drops off sharply like the blue fender and has the "foot" that turns out toward the running board. The black fender doesn't appear to have this foot, so I can't say for sure what you have pictures of.
edit:The peak on the black fender intersects with the hood side about mid-way like mine, while the blue fender intersects toward the front. I don't think either of those are for a '38 deluxe.
Been Looking at pics on the 'net, I THINK the black fender is a '37. The back of the blue fender looks like a '38 deluxe, but unless there is an illusion in the pic, the front doesn't look right.