Tom, I know the cracks you refer to but have a very different take on how they start. From my experience, if the hub moves back and forth as you describe, a crack will open up along side the keyway and a chunk of axle will come off yet it will still drive. The crack that results in the wheel parting company, IMO are due to worn rear wheel bearings. As we know, the bearing surface in the hub wears at the axle nut end. That means that end is larger and with the wheel supporting the weight of the car further out on the axle, the axle is being bent by the sloping wheel. The wheel is inclined inwards at the top as a result of the taper and as it rotates, the stresses in the axle change with every turn. Compression one moment and tension the next. That, repeated over and over many thousands of times becomes too much for the tired old axle and it breaks. The end of the keyway is the obvious place for the crack to develop.
For the longevity of the axles, the rear wheel bearings MUST be in good condition.